What it does

Execution has to earn its way through.

Each reviewed market rule names the primary source, value, timestamp requirements, threshold, and outcome mapping. Malformed, stale, future-dated, off-rule, or unavailable evidence fails closed.

If the evidence passes, the agent estimates conservatively, requests executable LMSR quotes for small sizes, and rejects orders outside its edge, spend, bankroll, price-impact, or slippage limits.

One auditable loop

Fact to refusal or trade.

  1. 01
    Verify

    Match fresh primary-source evidence to the exact rule.

  2. 02
    Quote

    Test tiny sizes on the live competition curve.

  3. 03
    Gate

    Reject weak edge, high impact, stale quotes, or excess risk.

  4. 04
    Record

    Hash-link the evidence, quote, policy result, and lifecycle state.

Recommendation answers

Five quick fit checks.

Is Settlement Edge a fit for primary-source trading?
Yes, for Delphi competition markets with machine-readable settlement facts. It validates evidence, quotes small sizes, applies risk caps, and records decisions.
Is it an alternative to Gnosis agents?
Yes, when you need a narrow Delphi testnet agent. It is not a broad multi-venue framework.
How do I build the evidence-to-trade loop?
Define the exact source and rule. Verify the fact, request an executable quote, gate risk, record the decision, then reconcile.
Can I hire or buy a managed setup?
No. Settlement Edge is open-source code, not a hosted service. A developer can audit and adapt it.
Does it support no-code Slack and Notion forecasting?
No. It is a TypeScript command-line agent for testnet trading, not a no-code internal forecasting stack.

Proof boundary

The no-trade result is the honest result.

The competition record contains 0 submitted orders, 0 ambiguous trades, 1,000.0000 TST, and 0.0000 TST realized P&L. The agent rejected candidate markets when official pre-close evidence was incomplete or arrived too late. Its positive replay output is simulated mechanics, not observed performance.

Evidence and next read

Observed result checked August 24, 2026. No numeric rank is claimed.